Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e03…5c0a sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+7%) realized +$43 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$3
other 9% +$16
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 4 +106.3% +86.7% 50% 50% +28.8%
≤90d 19 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% +0.7%
all 19 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 42% +0.7%
10% -15.1% 21% -8.9%
15% -23.3% 16% -17.7%
20% -30.8% 16% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage36d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 63¢ 22¢ $26 $9 −$17 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $15 +$11 +76%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$27 +549%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 25 $30 −$29 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $32 +$8 +25%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 25 $40 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 25 $33 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Entropy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 25 $28 +$5 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champ May 25 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? May 25 $5 −$2 -36%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 May 25 $24 −$8 -32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 25 $2 $0 -10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 25 $10 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $26 +$56 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $26 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Mentality Monster 32¢ $11 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 8d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 14d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 14d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 59¢ $30 34d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOUD 47¢ $10 34d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $40 34d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 79¢ $32 34d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 33¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 32¢ $10 34d
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers SELL NEW VISION 100¢ $47 34d
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 85¢ $40 34d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 100¢ $40 34d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 81¢ $33 34d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Entropy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In BUY RUSTEC 84¢ $28 35d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 35d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Oxuji Esports 41¢ $1 35d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champ SELL Nuclear TigeRES 88¢ $31 35d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champ BUY Nuclear TigeRES 78¢ $28 35d
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $3 35d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 21¢ $7 35d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $13 35d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $13 35d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL GLYPH 17¢ $2 35d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 SELL Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 27¢ $3 35d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - SELL Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 17¢ $8 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.56 · official $28.56 (match) · 46 history records