Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e0d…4c47 other 45 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$13
other 29% $0
world 19% +$6
sports 16% −$1
tech 2% +$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.4% -19.9% 40% 40% -22.0%
≤30d 44 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 14% -12.5%
≤90d 44 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 14% -12.5%
all 44 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 14% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 14% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 9% -20.8%
15% -28.7% 9% -28.5%
20% -35.7% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $4 $0 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $78 −$13 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 19 $1 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 -19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $9 −$1 -8%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$7 +60%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.33 · official $5.33 (match) · 566 history records