Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e0d…185c other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$29
14 days−$37
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$31
other 27% −$24
sports 22% −$4
economics 7% −$12
world 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
finance 3% −$9
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 68 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 145 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 162 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 140
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage101d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 94¢ 93¢ $72 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $364 −$2 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $166 −$4 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $182 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $253 −$2 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $294 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $214 −$4 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $488 −$4 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alisson Becker record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 10 $27 −$2 -6%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $201 −$2 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $115 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $107 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $54 $0 -1%
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $169 +$2 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $98 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 94¢ $44 54m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $71 1h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $71 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 10h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $75 10h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $76 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 98¢ $26 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $26 21h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $70 22h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $72 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $56 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $56 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $58 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $61 39h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 39h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 44h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 45h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $66 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $66 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.61 · official $71.61 (match) · 698 history records