Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e0f…a4b6 crypto 1674 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+2%) realized +$67 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%1197W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day74.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$35
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$9
other 16% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +1.9% -7.8% 72% 71% -7.7%
≤30d 1672 +1.3% -8.3% 72% 48% -10.9%
≤90d 1672 +1.3% -8.3% 72% 48% -10.9%
all 1672 +1.3% -8.3% 72% 48% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 48% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 36% -19.5%
15% -25.1% 28% -27.3%
20% -32.4% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1197 / 475
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1672 / 1674
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day74.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 71¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 25h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.65 (match) · 3500 history records