Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3E 0x3e15…0e90 weather 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$324 (-4%) realized −$322 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate86%67W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 35% −$3
crypto 28% −$302
politics 20% −$50
weather 8% +$1
other 7% +$36
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +95.0% +76.5% 80% 80% +39.5%
≤30d 11 +43.3% +29.6% 91% 36% +2.8%
≤90d 62 +6.9% -3.3% 95% 8% -7.5%
all 78 +4.0% -5.9% 86% 10% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 10% -12.8%
10% -14.9% 6% -21.1%
15% -23.1% 6% -28.7%
20% -30.7% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$35 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses67 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage532d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 1°C on May 11? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 2°C on May 11? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 11? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 11? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 11? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 22? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 22? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 22? May 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or below on April 22? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 Apr 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 21 Apr 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 21? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? Apr 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 15 Apr 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on April 16 Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 16? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 15? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 16? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 16? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 16 Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 16 Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 16? Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 4? Apr 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$320 on the final day of trading of th Apr 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $180? Apr 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 30 above $230? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 5? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $70? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 30 above $500? Apr 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 33m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 41m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 88¢ $12 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 2°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $24 35d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 1°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $15 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $36 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $40 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $36 35d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $27 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $23 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or below on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 54d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 SELL No 100¢ $23 54d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $34 55d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 21 BUY No 100¢ $26 55d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $35 55d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 55d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $23 55d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $49 56d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $52 56d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 61d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $21 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.93 · official $20.93 (match) · 163 history records