trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-50%) |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET | Up | 37¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Trump kiss by May 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | Up | 47¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Up | 6¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | Down | 10¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | Jun 13 | $3 | +$2 | +54% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET | Jun 13 | $3 | +$2 | +65% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET | Jun 13 | $4 | −$4 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET | Jun 13 | $4 | +$3 | +83% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | +$2 | +96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $2 | +$5 | +250% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | May 21 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | May 21 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | May 21 | $5 | +$1 | +28% |
| Trump kiss by May 31? | May 21 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | May 21 | $5 | +$3 | +60% |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 | May 21 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +11.8% | +1.2% | 54% | 46% | +3.5% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -8.3% | -17.1% | 47% | 42% | -13.0% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -8.3% | -17.1% | 47% | 42% | -13.0% |
| all | 19 | -8.3% | -17.1% | 47% | 42% | -13.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.1% | 42% | -13.0% |
| 10% | -25.0% | 37% | -21.3% |
| 15% | -32.2% | 32% | -28.9% |
| 20% | -38.9% | 32% | -35.9% |