Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e16…aa52 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$733 (+70%) realized +$770 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 37L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$95
14 days−$134
30 days+$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$767
world 28% +$38
crypto 9% −$25
other 5% −$47
sports 4% −$1
finance 2% +$4
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.3% -9.3% 48% 34% -34.1%
≤30d 60 +30.9% +18.4% 38% 32% +93.1%
≤90d 60 +30.9% +18.4% 38% 32% +93.1%
all 60 +30.9% +18.4% 38% 32% +93.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 32% +93.1%
10% +7.1% 28% +74.6%
15% -3.3% 23% +57.7%
20% -12.8% 18% +42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$6 · ×7.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$770
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)60 / 83
History coverage25d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 18¢ 94¢ $3 $15 +$12 (+419%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 25¢ 92¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+268%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 28¢ 78¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+177%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 63¢ 85¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+246%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 35¢ 17¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-51%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 29¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 52¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 -9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $15 −$6 -37%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $39 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $125 −$97 -78%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $3 +$5 +162%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $4 +$4 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$6 +215%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $9 −$4 -40%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $10 −$6 -58%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $5 −$3 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -58%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 09 $7 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -85%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -65%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -53%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $6 +$8 +131%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $8 −$5 -73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +64%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 06 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $3 −$2 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 7h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 26h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 3¢ $1 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $24 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 17¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.17 · official $209.82 (match) · 262 history records