Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e19…539a sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+2%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate74%34W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$68
14 days−$53
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$269
sports 40% −$159
other 19% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +17.5% +6.3% 88% 62% +1.8%
≤30d 46 +6.1% -4.0% 74% 61% -8.3%
≤90d 46 +6.1% -4.0% 74% 61% -8.3%
all 46 +6.1% -4.0% 74% 61% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 61% -8.3%
10% -13.2% 39% -17.1%
15% -21.6% 26% -25.1%
20% -29.2% 13% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$44 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses34 / 12
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage27d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$9 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$9 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $40 −$28 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $30 +$10 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $200 +$28 +14%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $201 −$165 -82%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $175 +$64 +37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $200 +$65 +33%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $81 −$10 -13%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $101 +$13 +13%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $91 −$32 -35%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $90 −$60 -66%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $50 +$21 +42%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $30 +$5 +15%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $31 +$5 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $30 +$26 +86%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $28 +$8 +27%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 04 $43 −$10 -23%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $30 −$24 -78%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $20 −$11 -54%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $30 +$5 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $30 +$17 +55%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $22 −$2 -8%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $30 +$10 +35%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ameri Jun 01 $41 +$9 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $120 +$16 +13%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $20 +$8 +39%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western May 31 $10 +$9 +91%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $104 +$25 +24%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $22 +$10 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $100 +$56 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $120 +$14 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $110 +$12 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $110 +$7 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $59 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $40 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 21h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $43 25h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 69¢ $30 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Alycia Parks 25¢ $11 7d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Alycia Parks 25¢ $2 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 7d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Alycia Parks 81¢ $40 8d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp SELL Mia Pohankova 100¢ $114 8d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp BUY Mia Pohankova 88¢ $100 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $40 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 58¢ $30 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $228 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $200 8d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 16¢ $35 9d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 88¢ $201 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL No 100¢ $239 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 73¢ $175 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 75¢ $200 13d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $71 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records