Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3E 0x3e1c…d8ac sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,284 (-7%) realized −$2,283 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%50W / 53L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$2,368
other 18% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 60% -26.5%
≤30d 5 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 60% -26.5%
≤90d 103 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -17.0%
all 103 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 49% -17.0%
10% -25.1% 48% -24.9%
15% -32.4% 42% -32.2%
20% -39.0% 32% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$218 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$2,283
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses50 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions6
Markets (closed)103 / 109
History coverage56d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Antonia Ruzic vs. Emma Raducanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 62¢ 64¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Bartunkova (-1.5) vs Stearns (+1.5) Stearns 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Svajda 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Mattia Bellucci 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +114%
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Jun 24 $1 $0 +11%
Monteleone vs. Salah: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 +$1 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Suzan Lamens May 20 $35 +$31 +86%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Marco Cecch May 20 $28 +$16 +57%
ITF Takasaki: Hina Inoue vs Yuki Naito May 20 $43 −$42 -99%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa May 19 $49 +$51 +105%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Ajla Tomljanovic May 19 $15 +$21 +139%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Istanbul: Mert Naci Turker vs Alafia Ayeni May 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs Daniel Dutra da Silva May 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 19 $42 +$66 +158%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 May 19 $42 −$41 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Chrystal Lopez vs Albina Kakenova May 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $70 +$92 +131%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Julia Grabher May 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $36 +$37 +103%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Max Schoenhaus May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 18 $203 −$7 -3%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Panna Udvardy May 18 $224 −$220 -98%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5 May 18 $202 +$131 +64%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Raphael Collignon May 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Botafogo FR vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 3.5 May 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $404 +$211 +52%
Parma: Camila Osorio vs Barbora Krejcikova May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Dusan Lajovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich May 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Paris: Katie Volynets vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $231 +$162 +70%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $644 −$155 -24%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 May 15 $440 −$435 -99%
Cordoba: Franco Roncadelli vs Nicolas Kicker May 15 $403 +$160 +40%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $406 −$400 -98%
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Miguel Tobon May 14 $404 +$201 +50%
Cordoba: Guido Justo vs Eduardo Ribeiro May 14 $188 −$76 -40%
Parma: Susan Bandecchi vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 14 $455 +$130 +29%
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini May 14 $404 +$148 +36%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch May 14 $426 +$342 +80%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $406 +$372 +92%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) May 14 $406 −$400 -98%
Oeiras 4: Petr Brunclik vs Jaime Faria May 14 $34 +$13 +40%
Parma: Barbora Krejcikova vs Viktorija Golubic May 14 $50 +$15 +31%
ITF Reggio Emilia: Gabriele Piraino vs Jacopo Bilardo May 14 $51 +$34 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 51¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Svajda 51¢ $51 1h
Antonia Ruzic vs. Emma Raducanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 62¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda BUY Mattia Bellucci 51¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Bartunkova (-1.5) vs Stearns (+1.5) BUY Stearns 52¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht BUY Louis Wessels 90¢ $1 4d
Monteleone vs. Salah: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 62¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 5d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Marco Cecch BUY Marco Cecchinato 63¢ $28 39d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 53¢ $35 39d
ITF Takasaki: Hina Inoue vs Yuki Naito BUY Hina Inoue 58¢ $43 39d
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Taiyo Yamanaka 32¢ $51 39d
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov BUY Hugo Gaston 40¢ $16 40d
Istanbul: Mert Naci Turker vs Alafia Ayeni BUY Mert Naci Turker 38¢ $12 40d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Sada Nahimana 100¢ $37 40d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa SELL Shuai Zhang 100¢ $100 40d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Sada Nahimana 41¢ $15 40d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa BUY Shuai Zhang 48¢ $49 40d
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs Daniel Dutra da Silva BUY Daniel Dutra da Silva 40¢ $16 40d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $42 40d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 40d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 40d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 36¢ $21 40d
ITF Kayseri: Chrystal Lopez vs Albina Kakenova BUY Albina Kakenova 53¢ $61 40d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $162 40d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Marie Bouzkova 46¢ $30 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.26 · official $250.26 (match) · 234 history records