Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3e1c…53f2 other 358 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$472 (+1%) realized +$384 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%140W / 194L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$2,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days−$89
14 days−$97
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$161
sports 18% +$214
politics 10% +$252
culture 4% +$238
world 4% −$439
tech 1% +$515
crypto 0% −$57
economics 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 31% -15.9%
≤30d 49 +16.0% +4.9% 37% 35% -14.4%
≤90d 231 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 37% -14.6%
all 334 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 39% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 39% -8.6%
10% -15.8% 36% -17.3%
15% -24.0% 32% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 27% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$68 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$2,033
Realized+$384
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses140 / 194
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions24
Markets (closed)334 / 358
History coverage243d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 76¢ 90¢ $380 $452 +$72 (+19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 36¢ $172 $170 −$2 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $142 $141 −$2 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 41¢ 38¢ $131 $123 −$8 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $109 $113 +$4 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $103 $107 +$4 (+4%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 78¢ $82 $90 +$8 (+10%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 19¢ 18¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 58¢ $73 $85 +$12 (+17%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 68¢ $80 $79 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 33¢ 32¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $42 $69 +$27 (+66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 41¢ 40¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 52¢ $69 $60 −$9 (-12%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 36¢ $50 $40 −$9 (-19%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 36¢ 36¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $109 +$204 +188%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $84 −$83 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $44 −$44 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$340 +307%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $181 −$5 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $179 −$175 -98%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $22 +$15 +72%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $21 +$79 +365%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$39 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $84 −$83 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $122 −$74 -61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$51 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 +$85 +172%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 +$314 +388%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $83 −$82 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 +$37 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $35 +$29 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 09 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 07 $56 +$27 +49%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 07 $101 −$57 -56%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Jun 07 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 07 $268 −$268 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $25 +$378 +1500%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $134 +$76 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $133 +$105 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $80 +$52 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $29 +$56 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $176 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 19¢ $93 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $54 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $67 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 33¢ $74 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $33 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $145 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $134 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,032.91 · official $2,032.91 (match) · 1187 history records