Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e1f…c79d crypto 856 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$290 (-1%) realized −$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%657W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$40
14 days−$69
30 days−$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$550
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.2% -8.5% 80% 80% -15.3%
≤30d 573 -5.1% -14.1% 73% 34% -12.2%
≤90d 856 -3.7% -12.9% 77% 30% -11.9%
all 856 -3.7% -12.9% 77% 30% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 30% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 12% -20.4%
15% -28.8% 6% -28.1%
20% -35.8% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses657 / 199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)856 / 856
History coverage40d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 856 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$22 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$13 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$13 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $12 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1704 history records