Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e21…12e4
other · 4 markets active 1h ago
7.5score
+$94 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$95 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$198
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage138d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $57 +$25 +44%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $132 +$169 +129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26 Jan 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% +$192
crypto 20% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 123d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 123d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 124d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 124d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 124d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY Yes 69¢ $33 124d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26 BUY Yes 26¢ $99 138d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $132 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 +24.2% +12.4% 67% 67% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 67% +20.6%
10% +1.6% 67% +9.1%
15% -8.2% 67% -1.5%
20% -17.2% 33% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.28 · official $198.28 (match) · 9 history records