Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e21…d939 crypto 911 markets active 3d ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-2%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate81%742W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day86.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$199
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 -3.5% -12.7% 84% 16% -9.4%
≤30d 911 -6.4% -15.3% 81% 11% -11.4%
≤90d 911 -6.4% -15.3% 81% 11% -11.4%
all 911 -6.4% -15.3% 81% 11% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 11% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 4% -19.9%
15% -30.8% 2% -27.6%
20% -37.6% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses742 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)911 / 911
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day86.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 911 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2045 history records