Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3e22…2f1d sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+10%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$81
other 43% −$13
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +33.9% +21.2% 48% 42% +1.8%
≤30d 52 +33.9% +21.2% 48% 42% +1.8%
≤90d 52 +33.9% +21.2% 48% 42% +1.8%
all 52 +33.9% +21.2% 48% 42% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.2% 42% +1.8%
10% +9.6% 40% -8.0%
15% -1.0% 38% -16.8%
20% -10.7% 29% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $81 +$38 +47%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +51%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +63%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$7 -63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$6 -51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $45 +$16 +35%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $18 +$12 +64%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$11 +1115%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 −$13 -20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +49%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 13m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $119 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 66¢ $71 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $4 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $10 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 97¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.21 · official $30.22 (match) · 111 history records