Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e23…e933 sports 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31,595 (-7%) realized −$31,595 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%126W / 72L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,143per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$4,540est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$683
14 days−$32,096
30 days−$30,030
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$28,970
other 11% −$4,567
crypto 1% +$90
world 1% −$39
politics 0% −$4
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 42% -16.4%
≤30d 122 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 44% -17.2%
≤90d 198 -0.5% -10.0% 64% 45% -16.4%
all 198 -0.5% -10.0% 64% 45% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 45% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 35% -24.4%
15% -26.5% 23% -31.7%
20% -33.7% 13% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$2,949) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$553 vs −$1,433 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$31,595
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses126 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$4,540
Open positions3
Markets (closed)198 / 205
History coverage89d
Avg bet$2,143
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $102 −$45 -44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $99 +$41 +41%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $122 −$98 -80%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $526 +$34 +6%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $154 +$116 +75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $481 +$131 +27%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $174 +$12 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $472 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $354 +$114 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $399 −$43 -11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,766 −$420 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $470 +$221 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $278 +$193 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $721 −$448 -62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $438 +$162 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $112 +$33 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $894 +$108 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,055 −$596 -56%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 +$4 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$6 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $3,541 −$206 -6%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,010 −$44 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,418 −$7,400 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6,075 −$6,000 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $570 −$567 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,571 +$3,681 +66%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $531 +$369 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,017 −$1,997 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,013 +$494 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,241 +$61 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $726 −$103 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $546 +$57 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,001 +$9 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3,584 +$677 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,239 −$1,498 -67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $610 −$256 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $52 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $57 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 11h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN SELL Infinite 14¢ $25 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Infinite 68¢ $122 26h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY Inner Circle Esports 71¢ $99 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 21¢ $4 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $526 30h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $154 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $471 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $13 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $481 39h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 62¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 62¢ $143 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 58¢ $174 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $473 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $472 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 82¢ $468 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 16¢ $3 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $354 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $356 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $399 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $445 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $393 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 14¢ $223 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.31 · official $102.31 (match) · 1828 history records