Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e24…f1bd other 58 markets active 4d ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59,569 (+18%) realized +$59,622 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$5,857per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,733
14 days−$1,130
30 days+$10,644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$13,481
sports 23% +$10,516
world 20% +$20,499
other 5% +$2,530
crypto 2% +$10,943
economics 2% +$1,316
tech 0% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 20% -94.9%
≤30d 17 +28.3% +16.1% 53% 41% +29.8%
≤90d 25 +12.0% +1.3% 56% 44% +11.2%
all 57 +7.2% -3.0% 60% 42% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 42% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 26% -3.9%
15% -20.8% 16% -13.2%
20% -28.5% 16% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$4,763) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,130 vs −$573 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$59,622
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage595d
Avg bet$5,857
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 95¢ 75¢ $248 $195 −$53 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 +$9 +650%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $992 −$974 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $90 +$125 +138%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $339 −$331 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $476 −$464 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $339 −$330 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $137 −$134 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $99 −$96 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,443 −$1,443 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $856 +$1,739 +203%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10,526 +$854 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $75 +$26 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,188 +$10,816 +175%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $2,182 +$753 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $626 +$179 +29%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $844 +$158 +19%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $6,399 −$5,968 -93%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $29,608 +$5,471 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $14,803 +$8,127 +55%
WTT - Men's Singles: South Korea vs China May 08 $349 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $61 −$61 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $18,130 +$3,370 +19%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $17,422 +$5,909 +34%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Mar 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Mar 12 $2,567 −$1,769 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 12 $0 +$2 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 12 $151 +$236 +156%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Mar 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 28 $399 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $7,939 +$631 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Feb 26 $100 −$44 -44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 26 $4,429 +$211 +5%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Feb 26 $185 −$185 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $581 −$530 -91%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 04 $4,461 +$2,839 +64%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 25 $54 −$35 -65%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $62 −$57 -93%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $5,264 +$1,316 +25%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $342 −$38 -11%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $8,670 +$1,077 +12%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 05 $817 +$92 +11%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Nov 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $65 +$51 +79%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $8,318 +$2,435 +29%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? Oct 30 $3,092 +$11 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 29 $4,763 +$142 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 31¢ $97 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 32¢ $293 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 31¢ $633 5d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $339 6d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $476 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $339 6d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $137 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $99 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $6 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $7 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $819 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $493 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $91 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 33¢ $856 9d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 10d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $159 10d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.25 · official $195.25 (match) · 537 history records