Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e24…c7e6 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-5%) realized −$54 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$323
sports 26% +$298
economics 2% −$2
politics 2% −$17
world 1% −$3
tech 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 110 -25.9% -33.0% 12% 11% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 11% -17.0%
10% -39.4% 10% -25.0%
15% -45.2% 10% -32.2%
20% -50.6% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -103% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$8 · ×6.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)110 / 115
History coverage290d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -87%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw? May 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $3 $0 -5%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Feb 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $3 $0 -5%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $13 +$10 +78%
Wizards vs. Nets Feb 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jan 28 $5 +$5 +110%
Will FC Barcelona vs. FC København end in a draw? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jan 27 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $20 −$6 -32%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Jan 26 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jan 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Amanda Anisimova Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Maddison Inglis vs Iga Swiatek Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Kings vs. Pistons Jan 25 $10 −$5 -55%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC end in a draw? Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Páfos FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $22 −$16 -75%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-12? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $9 −$2 -19%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $3 $0 -10%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-01-06? Jan 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-07? Jan 09 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mali win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 4d
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 25d
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 25d
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 25d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 29d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? BUY No 0¢ $2 30d
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 30d
Will Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 30d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $64 89d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 126d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-09? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 127d
Mavericks vs. Spurs BUY Mavericks 20¢ $11 128d
Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 128d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 128d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 128d
Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 128d
Wizards vs. Nets BUY Wizards 30¢ $15 128d
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-01-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 137d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 138d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 138d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 138d
Will FC Barcelona vs. FC København end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 138d
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.75 · official $8.76 (match) · 188 history records