Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e26…13d6 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate52%71W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$5
other 39% −$96
sports 2% −$12
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -35.4% -41.5% 50% 29% -28.8%
≤90d 32 -47.4% -52.4% 41% 28% -39.6%
all 136 -1.1% -10.5% 52% 27% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 27% -13.2%
10% -19.1% 19% -21.5%
15% -26.9% 15% -29.1%
20% -34.0% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses71 / 65
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 131
History coverage589d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 06 $31 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? Jun 06 $30 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? May 31 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 +$1 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 23 $13 +$6 +45%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $9 +$1 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $2 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 14 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 21 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $6 −$2 -36%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 02 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Apr 01 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $13 +$2 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 81 and 82 million views on week Mar 30 $43 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 82 and 83 million views on week Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 23 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 17 $1 $0 -44%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 17 $2 +$8 +390%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $1 +$9 +900%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $3 $0 +16%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $2 +$7 +416%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 03 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 17 to Feb 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 22 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 13 to Feb 21 $10 +$2 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 17 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 08 $2 +$1 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $6 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 98¢ $30 24d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week BUY No 97¢ $31 24d
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? SELL No 100¢ $67 24d
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $66 26d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 28d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $2 32d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 68¢ $13 32d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 37d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 11¢ $2 37d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 99¢ $60 41d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 33¢ $1 56d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $1 56d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 23¢ $1 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 89¢ $15 64d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY Oh My God 80¢ $7 67d
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 72d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $4 77d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $4 79d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $11 82d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $6 83d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier BUY JD Gaming 86¢ $15 85d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 86d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 81 and 82 million views on week BUY Yes 99¢ $43 87d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 82 and 83 million views on week BUY Yes 2¢ $1 87d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.97 · official $59.97 (match) · 265 history records