Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e27…3a1a sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$160 (+5%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$19
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$21
other 47% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.4% -29.8% 60% 40% -6.5%
≤30d 10 +21.6% +10.0% 80% 60% -1.6%
≤90d 33 +1.1% -8.5% 61% 52% -5.1%
all 33 +1.1% -8.5% 61% 52% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 52% -5.1%
10% -17.3% 24% -14.2%
15% -25.3% 24% -22.5%
20% -32.6% 18% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage81d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $241 +$23 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $235 +$26 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +168%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$40 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $243 +$38 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $30 −$18 -60%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $40 −$39 -97%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $20 +$23 +117%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $30 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $35 −$22 -62%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $20 −$10 -49%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $22 +$13 +58%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $20 −$8 -41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 08 $10 −$8 -77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner Apr 08 $40 −$8 -21%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $1 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $20 −$17 -83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $20 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $4 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $100 +$21 +21%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $20 +$3 +15%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $1,000 +$63 +6%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Valorant: T1 vs VARREL - Map 1 Winner Apr 03 $20 +$15 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $241 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $261 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $235 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 93¢ $27 8d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 8d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 8d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 97¢ $27 8d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,041 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 9d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 90¢ $281 9d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 75¢ $100 9d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 79¢ $143 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $83 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 10d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 14¢ $12 68d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants 31¢ $10 68d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants 37¢ $20 68d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 0¢ $1 70d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 7¢ $10 70d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 26¢ $10 70d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 56¢ $20 70d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 60¢ $28 71d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 42¢ $20 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records