Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e27…1863 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$98 (+1%) realized +$441 · open −$343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$665per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 21% −$139
sports 15% +$353
crypto 15% +$106
politics 13% $0
economics 12% −$389
culture 9% +$110
tech 9% +$32
world 7% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -14.1% -22.3% 60% 40% -6.1%
all 12 +0.3% -9.3% 67% 25% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 25% -5.3%
10% -18.0% 8% -14.3%
15% -25.9% 8% -22.6%
20% -33.2% 8% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$169 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$2,376
Realized+$441
Unrealized−$343
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage153d
Avg bet$665
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,247 $1,281 +$34 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $407 $405 −$2 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $326 $341 +$15 (+5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $192 $196 +$5 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 76¢ 20¢ $529 $140 −$389 (-74%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $1,538 +$230 +15%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $1,537 $0 +0%
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? Apr 03 $169 −$169 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $535 +$13 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 03 $822 +$99 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 18 $597 $0 +0%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $1,080 +$110 +10%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $223 +$124 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 12 $921 +$7 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 02 $918 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 28 $267 +$18 +7%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.07? Jan 27 $633 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $417 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $327 33d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1,249 33d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $192 33d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 87¢ $1,538 79d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $529 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 90¢ $198 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 89¢ $261 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 89¢ $16 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 89¢ $347 102d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 89¢ $347 103d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $535 122d
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $169 123d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 57¢ $223 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $928 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $921 135d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 89¢ $918 141d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 89¢ $918 142d
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $285 146d
Zama auction clearing price above $0.07? BUY No 99¢ $633 149d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 70¢ $628 149d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 74¢ $1,080 153d
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $267 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,375.52 · official $2,375.52 (match) · 40 history records