Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e29…7065 sports 18 markets active 8d ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$264 (+32%) realized +$264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate88%15W / 2L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$257
politics 18% +$8
culture 7% −$21
other 4% +$4
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 50% -0.3%
≤90d 5 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 40% -0.4%
all 17 +7.2% -3.0% 88% 35% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 35% +22.8%
10% -12.3% 12% +11.1%
15% -20.8% 12% +0.4%
20% -28.5% 12% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$27 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.68 per $1 lost it wins $5.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses15 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage93d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Spread: Romania (-1.5) Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Club Alianza Atlético leading at halftime? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5) Jun 02 $14 +$2 +11%
Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5) May 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academ Mar 16 $35 −$22 -64%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 Mar 15 $126 +$6 +5%
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Mar 15 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Mar 15 $32 +$2 +7%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th Mar 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5) Mar 15 $31 −$31 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Mar 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Mar 15 $123 +$63 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $191 +$215 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 91¢ $18 8d
Spread: Romania (-1.5) BUY Georgia 90¢ $18 21d
Club Alianza Atlético leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $9 26d
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5) BUY CA River Plate 90¢ $14 33d
Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5) BUY Villarreal CF 91¢ $14 41d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 5¢ $140 99d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $57 99d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $68 99d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $8 99d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $49 99d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 6¢ $55 99d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academ SELL Yes 1¢ $2 99d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academ SELL Yes 3¢ $11 99d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academ BUY Yes 3¢ $35 99d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $73 99d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $70 99d
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 99d
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 99d
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 6¢ $34 99d
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 99d
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 99d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th SELL Yes 2¢ $22 99d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th BUY Yes 2¢ $20 99d
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) BUY Chelsea FC 91¢ $16 101d
AD Ceuta FC vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 101d
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 101d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $191 101d
Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 101d
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Fateh Saudi Club 66¢ $123 101d
Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5) BUY Orlando City SC 32¢ $31 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.05 · official $20.05 (match) · 42 history records