Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e29…f52d sports 218 markets active 2h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$4
other 35% −$3
politics 21% −$3
economics 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 217 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)217 / 218
History coverage662d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $24 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 21 $14 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 1PM ET Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 11PM ET Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $88 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 3AM ET Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 3AM ET Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 11PM ET Jan 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $44 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 8PM ET Jan 16 $0 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 7PM ET Jan 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $30 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 1PM ET Jan 16 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1PM ET Jan 16 $0 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 8AM ET Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 5AM ET Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5AM ET Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $44 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 2AM ET Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 8PM ET Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 6PM ET Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $14 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 3PM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 2PM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 8AM ET Jan 14 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $27 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 2AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 2AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 1AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 4AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 10PM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 4AM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $30 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 10PM ET Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10PM ET Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 7AM ET Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 7AM ET Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3AM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1AM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 9PM ET Jan 12 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $29 13d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $29 13d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $30 27d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $30 27d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 34d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $24 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 42d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 42d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $13 156d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $1 156d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 99¢ $14 157d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $28 158d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 98¢ $29 159d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 159d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 162d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 162d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 162d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $30 162d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $30 163d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $14 163d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $14 163d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $14 163d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 99¢ $14 163d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $27 163d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $27 164d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $30 164d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $18 165d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $12 165d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.25 · official $32.25 (match) · 641 history records