Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3e2b…e550 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$419 (-9%) realized −$407 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days+$430
14 days+$570
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$112
sports 30% +$833
crypto 21% −$501
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +236.6% +204.6% 50% 50% +176.8%
≤30d 21 +58.2% +43.1% 43% 43% +5.6%
≤90d 21 +58.2% +43.1% 43% 43% +5.6%
all 21 +58.2% +43.1% 43% 43% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.1% 43% +5.6%
10% +29.4% 38% -4.5%
15% +16.9% 33% -13.7%
20% +5.4% 33% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +141% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$76 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$407
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 30
History coverage20d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $10 +$22 +211%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-0 Jun 19 $59 +$549 +936%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $21 +$105 +513%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $315 −$315 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$192 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 04 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $105 +$208 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND England to score first vs. Ghana? AND W BUY 80¢ $50 22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 BUY 32¢ $10 30h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $41 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 30h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 22¢ $358 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will BUY 23¢ $299 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 14¢ $308 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $2,000 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-0 BUY 9¢ $59 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 16¢ $103 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 16¢ $21 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 49¢ $30 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $261 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $55 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $102 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $31 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.49 · official $213.49 (match) · 72 history records