Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e2b…ed52 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,093 (+27%) realized +$1,094 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days−$369
14 days−$369
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$712
other 39% −$105
sports 12% +$992
world 7% −$278
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.2% -5.8% 35% 32% -21.6%
≤30d 40 +4.2% -5.8% 35% 32% -21.6%
≤90d 40 +4.2% -5.8% 35% 32% -21.6%
all 47 +8.4% -1.9% 34% 30% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 30% -11.9%
10% -11.3% 30% -20.3%
15% -19.9% 26% -28.0%
20% -27.7% 26% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$70 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,094
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage360d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana to win the second half? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$86 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $82 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $181 −$113 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -24%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$2 -20%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 −$25 -22%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $137 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $82 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$46 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$88 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$58 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $88 −$81 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $280 +$167 +60%
Jordan to win the second half? Jun 23 $315 −$310 -98%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $82 +$460 +560%
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 23 $128 +$352 +276%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$5 +4%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $71 +$18 +26%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $8 +$5 +61%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $158 −$56 -36%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 +$1 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $173 −$168 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 −$36 -52%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $150 +$721 +482%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jul 01 $21 −$18 -86%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 01 $265 −$177 -67%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 01 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 29 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jun 28 $17 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jun 28 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $83 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 214 history records