Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e30…41c6 crypto 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized −$53 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$283
7 days+$283
14 days+$283
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$158
politics 28% $0
other 7% +$6
sports 1% +$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +65.1% +49.4% 78% 78% +48.7%
≤30d 18 +65.1% +49.4% 78% 78% +48.7%
≤90d 21 +41.5% +28.0% 67% 67% +41.9%
all 64 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 38% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 38% -2.0%
10% -16.8% 38% -11.3%
15% -24.8% 36% -19.9%
20% -32.2% 36% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage554d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 53¢ 56¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 53¢ 56¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$17 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$40 +251%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$19 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$24 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $27 +$23 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$12 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $57 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$32 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$24 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 29 $9 +$8 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$24 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$24 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$24 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +82%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 16 $40 −$39 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$79 +265%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$26 +86%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$29 +97%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$26 +87%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$24 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 16 $20 +$15 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be less than 2, Mar 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 16 $15 +$20 +132%
AI Bubble Boom Parlay November Jan 22 $20 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 30 $13 +$4 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $43 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $55 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $31 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $54 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $63 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.82 · official $54.23 · 155 history records