trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $13 | +$3 (+32%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-12%) |
| Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Jun 13 | $192 | −$61 | -32% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $10 | +$44 | +425% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Jun 04 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 06 | $72 | +$59 | +83% |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Apr 16 | $65 | +$8 | +12% |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Apr 14 | $93 | −$11 | -12% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 08 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Apr 02 | $49 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Mar 23 | $166 | +$15 | +9% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +196.6% | +168.3% | 50% | 50% | -17.2% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +97.7% | +78.9% | 33% | 33% | -24.8% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +42.3% | +28.7% | 56% | 33% | -5.9% |
| all | 9 | +42.3% | +28.7% | 56% | 33% | -5.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +28.7% | 33% | -5.9% |
| 10% | +16.4% | 22% | -14.9% |
| 15% | +5.1% | 22% | -23.2% |
| 20% | -5.2% | 22% | -30.7% |