Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3E 0x3e31…832a other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$22
politics 21% −$8
sports 5% −$7
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +1.5% -8.1% 9% 8% -9.5%
all 105 +1.5% -8.1% 9% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×11.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 109
History coverage93d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 48¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $280 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $357 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $319 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $779 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $271 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $272 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $251 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $274 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $281 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $265 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $278 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 19h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 22h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $12 29h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 45h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 47h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $169 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 16d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 19d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 19d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 19d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $57 25d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $57 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.63 · official $296.63 (match) · 317 history records