Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e33…0ed3 crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$97 (-11%) realized −$55 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$96
14 days−$102
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$144
crypto 11% −$29
sports 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -18.5% -26.3% 32% 22% -29.0%
≤30d 65 -23.9% -31.1% 29% 23% -23.3%
≤90d 65 -23.9% -31.1% 29% 23% -23.3%
all 65 -23.9% -31.1% 29% 23% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 23% -23.3%
10% -37.7% 22% -30.7%
15% -43.7% 15% -37.4%
20% -49.2% 12% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage21d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 26¢ $61 $19 −$42 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 −$37 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 −$6 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $44 −$39 -90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$26 +622%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $140 +$4 +3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$25 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$9 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -79%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$5 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $34 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $70 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.36 · official $19.36 (match) · 203 history records