Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e35…f93e crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%43W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 34% +$5
crypto 29% +$1
other 16% $0
weather 8% −$23
politics 8% +$2
world 5% $0
sports 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -10.4% -18.9% 86% 14% -29.6%
all 53 -6.6% -15.5% 81% 15% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 15% -12.6%
10% -23.6% 9% -21.0%
15% -31.0% 8% -28.6%
20% -37.8% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses43 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage624d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 30? Apr 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? Apr 30 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Apr 30 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 6? Apr 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 6? Apr 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 6? Apr 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 30 $15 +$1 +5%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? Mar 06 $13 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 14? Mar 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Mar 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Feb 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Dec 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Dec 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Dec 24 $22 +$1 +4%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 28 $23 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 19 $26 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 14? Jul 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 14 $4 +$6 +138%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? Jun 29 $2 $0 +6%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 17? Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in April? May 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "E Apr 05 $12 $0 +3%
Lily Phillips sex event cancelled? Apr 05 $23 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration? Feb 15 $4 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Jan 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? Jan 04 $0 $0 -100%
Lions vs. Texans Jan 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%? Jan 04 $0 $0 +41%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Jan 04 $0 $0 +41%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Jan 04 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? Jan 04 $3 $0 +6%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $3 +$3 +96%
Puffer airdrop in 2024? Nov 11 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 30? BUY No 80¢ $25 52d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 52d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 95¢ $15 108d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? SELL No 98¢ $13 108d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 98¢ $13 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 96¢ $16 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 128d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 98¢ $15 180d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 180d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 247d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 247d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $22 247d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 100¢ $14 266d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 266d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 99¢ $23 306d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July BUY Yes 92¢ $26 342d
Ethereum Up or Down on July 14? BUY Down $2 342d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 358d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 400d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $16 400d
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 400d
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 400d
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 400d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.03 · official $27.03 (match) · 109 history records