Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e36…0f49 crypto 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-4%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%128W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$101
politics 1% −$10
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 49% -14.9%
≤30d 258 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 49% -14.9%
≤90d 260 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 49% -15.8%
all 260 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 49% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 49% -15.8%
10% -22.5% 48% -23.8%
15% -30.0% 48% -31.2%
20% -36.8% 47% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses128 / 132
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage32d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.86 · official $4.67 (match) · 484 history records