Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3E 0x3e36…0c4a other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$291 (+20%) realized +$330 · open −$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$48

7 days+$246

14 days+$274

30 days+$274

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+16.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+42.1%	+28.6%	56%	56%	+23.1%
≤30d	21	+28.2%	+16.0%	57%	52%	+13.6%
≤90d	21	+28.2%	+16.0%	57%	52%	+13.6%
all	21	+28.2%	+16.0%	57%	52%	+13.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.0%	52%	+13.6%
10%	+4.9%	43%	+2.7%
15%	-5.3%	43%	-7.2%
20%	-14.6%	38%	-16.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +50% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$25 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$270

Realized+$330

Unrealized−$39

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions7

Markets (closed)21 / 28

History coverage9d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$80	$85	+$5 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	49¢	50¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$39	$39	−$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	22¢	16¢	$30	$22	−$7 (-25%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	20¢	$50	$14	−$36 (-71%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$33	+65%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$201	+$24	+12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$21	+$3	+15%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$66	+129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$61	+$43	+70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$8	−$8	-97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$50	+$70	+140%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$13	−$13	-98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$48	+$35	+73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$49	−$49	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$84	+814%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	+$65	+64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$100	+$9	+9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$100	+$44	+44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$43	−$40	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$39	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	22¢	$31	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	61¢	$49	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$78	17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	97¢	$84	28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$82	40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	40h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$20	41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	41h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	SELL Yes	17¢	$24	45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$201	2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	98¢	$117	3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$61	4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$120	4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5	BUY Over	41¢	$50	4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	14¢	$13	4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$84	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$48	5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$49	6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$94	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.87 · official $273.44 · 45 history records