Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e39…ad54 crypto 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,276 (-13%) realized −$2,276 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%170W / 239L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$397
7 days−$590
14 days−$634
30 days−$924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -30.4% -37.0% 38% 35% -15.8%
≤30d 224 -24.9% -32.0% 41% 37% -17.4%
≤90d 409 -21.8% -29.2% 42% 37% -20.3%
all 409 -21.8% -29.2% 42% 37% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 37% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 31% -27.9%
15% -42.2% 26% -34.9%
20% -47.8% 18% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$27 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,276
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses170 / 239
Open positions0
Markets (closed)409 / 409
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 409 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$38 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$21 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $131 −$99 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $168 −$65 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $107 −$64 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $79 +$79 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $156 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $155 +$78 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $133 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$24 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$14 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$20 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $86 −$75 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $108 +$28 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $85 +$19 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $165 +$26 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$27 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $165 −$141 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $116 +$20 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $199 −$38 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $196 −$48 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $187 +$58 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $54 −$51 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $123 +$48 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $144 +$52 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $76 +$32 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$23 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records