Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e3a…247a crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%94W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$50
other 3% −$1
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 66 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 95 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$545) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×18.24 per $1 lost it wins $18.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses94 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage150d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $559 $559 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $450 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $219 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $545 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $538 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $538 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $533 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $530 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $529 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $559 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $559 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $558 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $558 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $557 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $557 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $556 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $555 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $555 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $554 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $553 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $557 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $552 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $551 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $551 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $550 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $550 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $549 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $549 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $548 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $547 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $546 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $546 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $545 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $544 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.16 · official $566.16 (match) · 195 history records