Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3E 0x3e3f…e9fb crypto 882 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,796 (-24%) realized −$3,796 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate72%696W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,706
7 days−$1,687
14 days−$1,715
30 days−$1,715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$967
sports 3% −$32
other 3% −$454
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 447 -21.6% -29.1% 56% 13% -32.8%
≤30d 563 -18.0% -25.8% 64% 10% -29.0%
≤90d 563 -18.0% -25.8% 64% 10% -29.0%
all 967 -10.6% -19.1% 72% 39% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 39% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 6% -31.7%
15% -33.9% 4% -38.3%
20% -40.4% 4% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,796
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses696 / 271
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)967 / 882
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 967 Trades
no open positions (240 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $23 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records