Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e40…224e
crypto · 1259 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10,650 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,237 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$371
Realized−$2,237
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses736 / 755
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1491 / 1259
History coverage111d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 12 History 1491 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,689
7 days−$2,577
14 days−$2,608
30 days−$7,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $66 $74 +$8 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $71 $74 +$3 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 78¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 87¢ 81¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 22¢ 29¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 70¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Jonathan Majors as Kang? No 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? No 62¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Bernie Sanders say "Robotic" or "Robotics" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? No 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bernie Sanders say "Paycheck to Paycheck" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? No 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 3PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarch Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Robotic" or "Robotics" during the Fighting Ol Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Paycheck to Paycheck" during the Fighting Oli Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 3PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Minneapolis" during the Fighting Oligarchy ra Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Election" at Fort Bragg on Friday? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$3,009
weather 32% −$580
crypto 20% −$511
other 7% +$4,679
politics 3% +$67
sports 2% −$114
tech 0% −$89
culture 0% −$63
finance 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $60 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 87¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 5h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Tessa Brockmann 75¢ $14 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $18 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 -73.2% -75.8% 11% 9% -58.9%
≤30d 471 -57.5% -61.5% 23% 17% -56.7%
≤90d 788 -36.5% -42.5% 37% 30% -43.2%
all 1491 -19.1% -26.8% 49% 36% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 36% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 29% -21.8%
15% -40.2% 24% -29.4%
20% -46.0% 19% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.57 · official $370.57 (match) · 3500 history records