Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e42…495d politics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$923per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$35
other 7% −$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$931) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage72d
Avg bet$923
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $906 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $909 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $920 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $923 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $923 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $927 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,865 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $941 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $941 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,886 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $945 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $904 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $906 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $906 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $908 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $907 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $908 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $908 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $910 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 22d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $909 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $916 26d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $917 27d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $916 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $917 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $914 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $914 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $918 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $919 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $918 35d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $920 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $919 37d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $921 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $920 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.91 · official $31.91 (match) · 108 history records