Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e43…7988 world 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+4%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$47
finance 5% $0
sports 4% −$1
other 4% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$2
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 18 +16.1% +5.1% 50% 11% -4.0%
≤90d 18 +16.1% +5.1% 50% 11% -4.0%
all 42 +5.7% -4.3% 48% 5% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 5% -5.6%
10% -13.5% 5% -14.6%
15% -21.8% 5% -22.9%
20% -29.5% 5% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.73 per $1 lost it wins $9.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage476d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $83 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $82 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $82 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $3 $0 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $66 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $42 +$45 +108%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $7 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 22 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 15 $4 $0 -11%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4? Mar 03 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 11m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $58 11m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $4 11m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $69 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $70 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $42 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $29 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $60 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $83 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $67 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records