Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e46…46c4
weather · 269 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$316 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$327 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$127
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses246 / 19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)265 / 269
History coverage155d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$73
14 days−$181
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4? No 99¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7? No 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? No 83¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $205 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$16 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $146 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $208 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 13 $0 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$181
crypto 3% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $16 16m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 27m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $23 35m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $99 36m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 41m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 55m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $50 57m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -0.9% -10.4% 96% 1% -8.8%
≤30d 247 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 3% -10.8%
≤90d 249 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 3% -10.8%
all 265 -3.1% -12.3% 93% 5% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -11.8%
10% -20.7% 2% -20.2%
15% -28.4% 2% -27.9%
20% -35.4% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.95 · official $126.95 (match) · 1000 history records