trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 20% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 21% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 21% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 27 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 44% | 4% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.1% | 4% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -20.5% | 0% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -28.2% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 83¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $63 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $56 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $9 | −$2 | -18% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $56 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 12 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $41 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 07 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 05 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -8% |
| Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend | Dec 09 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | May 31 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | May 28 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | May 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | May 07 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 24 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| St. John's vs. DePaul | Mar 04 | $6 | +$1 | +16% |