Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

3E 0x3e4a…6f7d other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$238 (-8%) realized −$170 · open −$68

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$510per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-15.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-7.1%	-15.9%	75%	75%	-19.5%
≤30d	4	-7.1%	-15.9%	75%	75%	-19.5%
≤90d	4	-7.1%	-15.9%	75%	75%	-19.5%
all	4	-7.1%	-15.9%	75%	75%	-19.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.9%	75%	-19.5%
10%	-24.0%	25%	-27.2%
15%	-31.3%	25%	-34.2%
20%	-38.0%	0%	-40.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$128 vs −$628 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$474

Realized−$170

Unrealized−$68

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$510

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	84¢	74¢	$542	$474	−$68 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$481	+$63	+13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$548	+$239	+44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$631	−$628	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$549	+$82	+15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	84¢	$544	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	82¢	$544	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$481	9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O	BUY	30¢	$306	10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$548	23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$631	28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	99¢	$631	28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$549	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.86 · official $473.86 (match) · 9 history records