Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

3E 0x3e4b…a619 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$606 (+15%) realized +$606 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate64%18W / 10L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$136per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$664

7 days+$742

14 days+$734

30 days+$734

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+1.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+33.3%	+20.6%	76%	62%	+8.6%
≤30d	26	+17.4%	+6.2%	65%	54%	+8.2%
≤90d	28	+12.7%	+1.9%	64%	50%	+5.0%
all	28	+12.7%	+1.9%	64%	50%	+5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.9%	50%	+5.0%
10%	-7.8%	50%	-5.0%
15%	-16.7%	46%	-14.2%
20%	-24.9%	36%	-22.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late +38% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$14 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.43 per $1 lost it wins $5.43

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$606

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses18 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)28 / 29

History coverage92d

Avg bet$136

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 28 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$150	+$5	+3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5	Jun 23	$726	+$14	+2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$30	+$18	+59%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$1,586	+$132	+8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,084	+$501	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	Jun 20	$15	+$25	+162%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$5	+$11	+213%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	+$5	+89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$5	+$5	+93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$25	+$16	+62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	+$5	+100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+38%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$3	−$1	-31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$14	+134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$13	+$7	+52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$11	+$2	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$7	+$3	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$11	+$12	+109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	−$8	-80%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Apr 08	$103	−$103	-100%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	Apr 08	$100	+$3	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	97¢	$150	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	33¢	$5	2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5	SELL Under	100¢	$740	4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	98¢	$726	5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$48	5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	69¢	$20	5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	52¢	$10	6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,718	6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$1,586	10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,585	11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$998	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$86	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$10	3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	51¢	$5	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	BUY	38¢	$15	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	52¢	$5	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$41	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$25	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	31¢	$5	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$4	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	49¢	$5	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$2	5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$24	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$5	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$5	6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$13	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records