Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3E 0x3e4c…5695 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (189 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$476 (-7%) realized −$570 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day189.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$802
sports 5% −$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (189 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +9.7% -0.8% 55% 55% -3.7%
≤30d 40 +9.7% -0.8% 55% 55% -3.7%
≤90d 40 +9.7% -0.8% 55% 55% -3.7%
all 40 +9.7% -0.8% 55% 55% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover189.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 55% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 55% -12.9%
15% -18.9% 55% -21.3%
20% -26.9% 52% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$152 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$570
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day189.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 34¢ 66¢ $102 $196 +$94 (+93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $39 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $152 +$148 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $203 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $161 −$159 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $227 −$72 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$149 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$148 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $106 +$194 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $150 +$150 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $157 +$143 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $158 +$142 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $158 +$142 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $152 +$148 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $154 +$146 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $156 +$144 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $157 +$143 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $151 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $157 +$136 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $182 +$218 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $180 −$174 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $212 +$163 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $178 −$173 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $184 −$177 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $161 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $153 +$119 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$148 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $148 +$105 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $153 +$147 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$149 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $84 +$35 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $165 +$188 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$151 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $149 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $161 +$123 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $260 −$255 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $154 −$153 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $313 −$308 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $107 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $29 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $152 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $99 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $62 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $203 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $17 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $28 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $153 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $124 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $158 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.50 · official $186.15 · 211 history records