Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e4d…ec6d politics 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$26
other 42% −$21
sports 6% +$86
crypto 4% −$2
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 121 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 3% -9.6%
all 137 +3.2% -6.7% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -15.6% 6% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×11.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage114d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $315 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 27 $378 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $289 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $315 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $274 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $349 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $213 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $880 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $599 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $356 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $310 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $737 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 8h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 9h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 16h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 14d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 15d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 98¢ $45 20d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $45 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $323 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $275 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $275 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $378 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $378 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $338 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.97 · official $49.97 (match) · 412 history records