Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e4d…820b sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$658 (+6%) realized +$724 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$401per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$210
14 days+$276
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$143
world 17% +$144
tech 9% +$142
economics 9% −$21
other 3% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.1% +11.4% 100% 100% +11.5%
≤30d 7 -7.9% -16.7% 71% 71% -24.2%
≤90d 28 +2.6% -7.2% 68% 57% -5.3%
all 28 +2.6% -7.2% 68% 57% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 57% -5.3%
10% -16.0% 39% -14.4%
15% -24.2% 25% -22.6%
20% -31.6% 21% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$169 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$724
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage48d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Netherlands 45¢ 21¢ $125 $59 −$66 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $200 +$42 +21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $199 +$48 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $304 +$74 +24%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 21 $201 +$46 +23%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $497 +$66 +13%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $467 −$286 -61%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $355 −$350 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $857 +$414 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $304 +$196 +64%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $990 +$132 +13%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $203 +$127 +63%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $375 +$252 +67%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $321 +$50 +16%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $311 −$84 -27%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $111 +$88 +79%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $152 +$120 +79%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $1,008 +$142 +14%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $201 +$6 +3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $584 +$22 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $392 −$21 -5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $199 −$179 -90%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 16 $210 −$210 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 16 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $199 −$175 -88%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $263 +$149 +57%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $199 +$64 +32%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $996 −$21 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 44¢ $36 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 45¢ $91 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 56¢ $127 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 86¢ $199 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $242 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 82¢ $200 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 100¢ $248 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 80¢ $199 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 100¢ $367 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 76¢ $282 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 38¢ $11 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 73¢ $22 5d
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 5d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 96¢ $564 12d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 84¢ $497 12d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 20¢ $2 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 19¢ $180 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $467 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 55¢ $355 29d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 100¢ $1,271 30d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 85¢ $552 30d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 48¢ $305 30d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $499 31d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 60¢ $304 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,122 31d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 83¢ $330 33d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 56¢ $203 34d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 50¢ $203 34d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 100¢ $626 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.70 · official $58.70 (match) · 71 history records