Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e51…7d12 sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$142 · open −$121
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$177
sports 15% +$101
crypto 3% −$29
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 45% -7.0%
≤30d 31 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 45% -7.0%
≤90d 31 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 45% -7.0%
all 31 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 45% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 45% -7.0%
10% -23.2% 35% -15.9%
15% -30.6% 32% -24.0%
20% -37.4% 26% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized+$142
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)31 / 41
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 81¢ 58¢ $426 $307 −$118 (-28%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 91¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 94¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $109 +$85 +78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $295 −$98 -33%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$9 +232%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$4 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$43 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $7 6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 20m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $1 24m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 32m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 36m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 53m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $63 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 27h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.74 · official $386.08 · 81 history records