Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e51…31a1 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%38W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$82
crypto 17% +$1
tech 16% +$2
world 12% +$33
politics 11% +$1
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 41 +1.5% -8.2% 93% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -10.5%
10% -17.0% 5% -19.1%
15% -25.0% 5% -26.9%
20% -32.4% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$66 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses38 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage234d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 13 $112 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of May 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? May 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April? May 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 April 13-19? Apr 27 $111 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $150? Apr 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $340 in March? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $375 in March? Apr 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$430 on the final day of trading of th Mar 31 $110 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 27 $327 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $110 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $140? Mar 08 $109 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 25 $109 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in January? Feb 04 $108 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $35 +$51 +146%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $22 −$19 -88%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Jan 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $189 −$114 -60%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jan 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of December? Jan 02 $189 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Dec 31 $106 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Dec 22 $56 +$27 +49%
Trump out as President in 2025? Dec 22 $110 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Dec 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2? Dec 09 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Nov 27 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Nov 15 $99 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Nov 08 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1? Nov 02 $153 +$2 +1%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $112 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $113 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $95 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 10d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $52 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $112 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $111 27d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $91 33d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $20 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $18 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $17 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $13 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $32 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $111 47d
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April? BUY No 100¢ $111 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.15 · official $112.15 (match) · 122 history records