Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e51…becc crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+4%) realized +$82 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%68W / 33L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$41
14 days+$63
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$38
crypto 20% −$10
other 6% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.2% +7.0% 100% 75% +0.1%
≤30d 20 +11.0% +0.5% 100% 35% -3.6%
≤90d 23 +5.6% -4.4% 96% 30% -4.2%
all 101 -8.9% -17.6% 67% 26% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 26% -6.3%
10% -25.5% 19% -15.2%
15% -32.7% 6% -23.4%
20% -39.3% 2% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses68 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage120d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 54¢ $60 $42 −$18 (-30%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Overwatch: ZANSIDE GAMING vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr Jun 19 $8 +$2 +25%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
Overwatch: T1 vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 13 $130 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $110 +$1 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $110 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs HUNENG (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs Poker Face (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gro Jun 07 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $14 +$5 +36%
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Spacestation Gaming (BO2) - OCS Champions May 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs Homie E (BO3) - OCS China Stage 1 Group Sta Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 22 $5 $0 +8%
Overwatch: ONSIDE Gaming vs T1 (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 1 Group Stage Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 09 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 09 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 03 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 03 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 03 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 03 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 03 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 03 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 03 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 1h
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage SELL Crazy Raccoon 100¢ $30 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $50 4h
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage SELL Falcons 100¢ $103 4h
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Crazy Raccoon 97¢ $15 4h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7h
Overwatch: ZANSIDE GAMING vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr BUY ZANSIDE GAMING 80¢ $8 7h
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 97¢ $100 7h
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Crazy Raccoon 69¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $10 7h
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group BUY Virtus.pro 75¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 78¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $10 6d
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding SELL JD Gaming 100¢ $124 6d
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding BUY JD Gaming 81¢ $101 6d
Overwatch: T1 vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage SELL T1 100¢ $133 6d
Overwatch: T1 vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY T1 97¢ $130 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 99¢ $110 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 96¢ $100 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 95¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 96¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 100¢ $106 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 94¢ $100 12d
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs Poker Face (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group SELL Crazy Raccoon 100¢ $10 12d
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs HUNENG (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Weibo Gaming 99¢ $100 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.74 · official $127.74 (match) · 278 history records