Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
3E 0x3e52…ec62 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+23%) realized +$80 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$30
other 31% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.5% +7.2% 62% 62% +26.4%
≤30d 8 +18.5% +7.2% 62% 62% +26.4%
≤90d 8 +18.5% +7.2% 62% 62% +26.4%
all 8 +18.5% +7.2% 62% 62% +26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 62% +26.4%
10% -3.1% 62% +14.3%
15% -12.4% 62% +3.3%
20% -21.0% 62% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$21 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 72¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+22%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 56¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 73¢ 82¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $41 +$35 +86%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$28 +140%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $57 +$60 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $41 +$27 +65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $36 −$34 -96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $40 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $41 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 6h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 6h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $20 7h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 33¢ $1 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $17 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $19 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $24 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $34 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.44 · official $193.45 (match) · 25 history records