Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3E 0x3e53…a490 politics 19 markets active 3h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1
politics 29% −$2
culture 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-66.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -63.2% -66.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -69.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -72.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -75.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage591d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Maryland US Senate Election? Nov 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Massachusetts US Senate Electi Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Minnesota US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Nov 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District be the tipping point jurisd Nov 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Electio Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $232 2h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $232 23h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 3d
Will a candidate from another party win Maryland US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 588d
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 588d
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 588d
Will a candidate from another party win Massachusetts US Senate Electi BUY Yes 0¢ $0 588d
Will a candidate from another party win Minnesota US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 588d
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 589d
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 589d
Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 589d
Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 589d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $220 591d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $220 591d
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 100¢ $220 591d
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 100¢ $220 591d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season? SELL No 100¢ $220 591d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season? BUY No 100¢ $221 591d
Will Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District be the tipping point jurisd SELL No 100¢ $221 591d
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 591d
Will Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District be the tipping point jurisd BUY No 100¢ $221 591d
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $221 591d
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Electio BUY Yes 0¢ $0 591d
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 591d
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $221 591d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records