Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3E 0x3e56…35d5 world 376 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,205 (+127%) realized +$3,254 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%175W / 139L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$88
other 10% +$39
politics 7% −$38
finance 2% +$31
tech 1% +$17
sports 0% −$8
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +32.9% +20.2% 50% 35% -24.9%
≤30d 159 +29.5% +17.1% 60% 49% -14.2%
≤90d 314 +46.9% +32.9% 56% 47% -4.2%
all 314 +46.9% +32.9% 56% 47% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.9% 47% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here +20.2% 34% -13.4%
15% +8.6% 26% -21.7%
20% -2.0% 19% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$3,254
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses175 / 139
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions71
Markets (closed)314 / 376
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+63%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+47%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? No 15¢ 48¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+221%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 90¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 51¢ 87¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+72%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? No 24¢ 19¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 42¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 80¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+40%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-63%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-55%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 72¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $17 $5 −$13 (-73%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+108%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $25 −$19 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 24 $42 −$37 -87%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $3 +$3 +125%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +19%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 24 $4 +$16 +395%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $541 −$13 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 21 $22 −$20 -92%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 21 $40 −$38 -95%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $7 +$8 +120%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 +$2 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -26%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Jun 20 $1 +$11 +1064%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 +$33 +663%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $14 −$9 -68%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +40%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $51 +$2 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $2 +$10 +488%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $11 +$10 +92%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.73 · official $300.11 (match) · 3500 history records